U.S. Local Ad Forecast Amended Down by BIA Under Escalating Strain
In a recent update to the 2025 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast by BIA Advisory Services, several key projections for various media types have been revealed.
The Finance and Insurance category is forecasted to grow by 4.0% year-over-year in local advertising, while the Real Estate category is expected to grow by a significant 10.4%. On the other hand, the Media category is predicted to decline by 2.2%, and the Healthcare category is expected to decline by 0.5%.
The General Services category is also forecasted to decline by 0.3% year-over-year in local advertising. Conversely, the Restaurants and Food category is projected to grow by 7.8%.
In the digital realm, PC/Laptop advertising is expected to grow by 12.1%, and mobile advertising is expected to rise by 9.4%. TV digital advertising is estimated to grow by 3.7%, while both out-of-home (OOH) advertising and direct mail are projected to see a growth of 1.6%.
Connected TV (CTV)/Over-the-Top (OTT) advertising is expected to increase by a substantial 29.3% in the updated forecast. This growth is attributed to ad-supported streaming platforms capturing 73.6% of TV viewing, signalling a shift from traditional broadcasting to streaming.
The revised forecast for 2025 local advertising revenue is $169 billion, representing a 2.4% decline compared to the previous year. Excluding political advertising, the updated forecast for the year is $168.2 billion, representing a 3.7% growth compared to last year.
Digital media is expected to account for 53.7% of total advertising spending, totaling $90.4 billion. Traditional media, on the other hand, is projected to make up 46.3% of total ad revenues, totaling $77.8 billion, reflecting a decrease of $3.5 billion from previous estimates.
Economic factors such as consumer sentiment, tariffs, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions are exerting increased pressure on local advertising budgets. Despite these challenges, Mele, a leading figure in the advertising industry, is optimistic about the holiday shopping season, which is expected to start in early November, offering opportunities for targeted advertising.
Mele has expressed a focus on exploiting growth opportunities in fast-growing categories while navigating declines in other categories. The expert is also looking forward to exploring advertising trends further and providing clients with insights to capitalise on growth in fast-growing categories. BIA has raised its forecast for digital media spending by $855 million this year.
The forecast considers an expected minimum tariff environment of 10%. This updated forecast provides valuable insights for businesses looking to strategise their advertising efforts in the coming year.
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] - Sources for the data and information provided in this article.
- The broadcaster anticipates a significant growth in the Finance and Insurance category, projected to increase by 4.0% year-over-year in local advertising.
- The Real Estate category is expected to expand by a considerable 10.4%, according to the 2025 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast.
- Contrary to these growth predictions, the Media category is forecasted to decline by 2.2%, and Healthcare by 0.5%.
- In the digital sphere, PC/Laptop advertising is expected to soar by 12.1%, and mobile advertising by 9.4%, based on the same forecast.
- The revised forecast expects Connected TV (CTV)/Over-the-Top (OTT) advertising to surge by an impressive 29.3%, propelled by ad-supported streaming platforms capturing 73.6% of TV viewing.
- Economic factors such as consumer sentiment, tariffs, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions are putting pressure on local advertising budgets, but Mele remains optimistic about the holiday shopping season.
- BIA has raised its forecast for digital media spending by $855 million this year, with digital media expected to account for 53.7% of total advertising spending.
- The expert, Mele, is aspiring to capitalize on growth opportunities in fast-growing categories while navigating declines in others, providing clients with insights to maximise profits in these expanding sectors.
