"Expressing one's desire to deliver a speech is within one's power"
In the heart of Germany, a group of experts, including Professor Achim Truger, are making significant decisions that shape the country's economic future. Known as the Council of Experts for the Assessment of Overall Economic Development, this esteemed body operates from the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden, with a team of 15 to 18 highly qualified scientists.
Professor Truger, appointed in 2019 at the suggestion of the trade unions, is a prominent member of this council. He is also a professor at the Institute for Socioeconomics at the University of Duisburg-Essen. As an economic advisor, Truger contributes to the national discourse through interviews, simplifying complex economic issues, and conducting media training to explain topics to less knowledgeable audiences.
Truger is particularly active on Twitter, using the platform to give a voice to those who might otherwise be unheard. However, he acknowledges his responsibility on the platform due to his access to politics and prominent visibility through the media, and he tries to be restrained in his discussions.
One of the main challenges Germany faces, according to Truger, is achieving a societal consensus for its transformation towards climate neutrality. He points out that there is still a lingering remnant of radical neoliberal thinking, which questions the legitimacy of having societal goals.
The Council's annual report is a crucial document that outlines their findings and recommendations. The specialist departments read the report thoroughly, but the Chancellor may not have read it. The report covers focus chapters on pensions, capital markets, and distribution, with the productivity chapter's content determined by the Council.
Recently, the Council's work has been affected by the debate about the gas embargo on Twitter. The discussion became highly emotional, with some calling for an immediate gas embargo against Russia, while others disagreed and organised counter-campaigns.
The Council's political responsibility for the report's suggestions lies with the politics, not the Council of Experts. The Chancellor's office may contact the Council's staff, but not the Chancellor himself.
In 2024, an additional 20 billion euros is affected by the Council's recommendations. This includes 60 billion from the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF) and an additional 26 billion from the grand coalition. The Economic Stabilization Fund (WSF) is also affected, amounting to about 40 billion.
However, the Council's work was recently challenged by the Federal Constitutional Court's ruling on the 2022 supplementary budget. The court declared the budget unconstitutional and void, affecting about 126 billion euros in operations. Drastically cutting the budget now, according to Truger, would have severely negative effects on the overall economy and greatly increase the likelihood of a recession.
Despite these challenges, the Council continues its work, meeting in Berlin several times a year, including presenting their economic forecast in the spring and handing over the annual report to the Chancellor. The recent relocation of the Council's seat from Wiesbaden to Berlin may influence organisational logistics and access to expert networks, potentially enhancing communication and coordination with government bodies.
Truger, who has provoked discussions on Twitter from time to time, remains committed to navigating Germany's economic transformation, ensuring that everyone is taken along in the process for it to work. He is particularly dissatisfied with the quality of the discourse surrounding the debt brake, but he feels that the quality has greatly improved, and the discussions are now more nuanced.
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