Concern over advanced artificial intelligence is causing Harvard and MIT students to abandon their studies
In the realm of artificial intelligence (AI), a significant debate is unfolding among experts regarding the timeline for the emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). While a broad consensus places its probable arrival between 2040 and 2075, with a median estimate around 2050, some leading figures in the field predict it could come much sooner, even within the next few years.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis, for instance, believe AGI will be developed before 2029 and within the next five to 10 years, respectively. Nikola Jurković, co-author of a timeline forecast for the AI Futures Project, aligns with the prediction that most white-collar jobs could be automated by 2030.
The potential impact of AGI on the job market is a matter of concern for many. Today's AI has already surpassed human performance in specialized tasks like medical diagnosis, coding, and document analysis, hinting that AGI could accelerate workforce changes significantly. According to experts, the practical definition of AGI is an AI that can perform most tasks humans currently do for pay.
This shift could lead to disruption across various sectors, potentially replacing many jobs. Half of the 326 Harvard students surveyed by the school's undergraduate association and AI safety club were worried about AGI's impact on their job prospects. Some companies are hiring fewer interns and recent graduates because AI can perform their tasks, while others are conducting mass layoffs.
The effects on society and humanity are uncertain and highly debated. Some experts express concerns about potential risks, including catastrophic outcomes or loss of control if superintelligence behaves unpredictably or "goes rogue." Others emphasize that AGI is inevitable and focus on preparing to maximize its benefits rather than fearing worst-case scenarios.
Notably, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has warned that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and cause unemployment to rise to 20% in the next few years. The U.S. Department of State-commissioned report from 2024 suggests that extinction-level risk is possible due to the fast pace of AI development.
However, not everyone shares these fears. New York University professor emeritus Gary Marcus believes that human extinction due to AGI is very unlikely, but working on AI safety is noble.
Meanwhile, some individuals are making career moves in response to these developments. Alice Blair, a student from Berkeley, California, has taken a permanent leave of absence from MIT due to fear of AGI and is now working as a technical writer at the Center for AI Safety, a nonprofit focused on AI safety research. Adam Kaufman, a physics and computer science major, left Harvard University to work full-time at Redwood Research, a nonprofit examining deceptive AI systems. Kaufman's brother, roommate, and girlfriend have also taken leave from Harvard for similar reasons and currently work for OpenAI.
Others, like Jared Mantell and Anysphere CEO Michael Truell, are pursuing startup ventures. Mantell dropped out of Washington University in St. Louis to focus full-time on his startup dashCrystal, which has raised over $800,000 at a valuation of around $20 million. Anysphere, valued at $9.9 billion, was founded by Truell after he left MIT.
In summary, while a broad expert majority sees AGI emerging mid-21st century, significant voices foresee much earlier arrival. Its impact will likely be profound on jobs by supplanting human labor at scale and on humanity's future in unpredictable ways, posing both transformative potential and serious risks.
[1] "The Future of Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinions," Yann LeCun, Yoshua Bengio, and Geoffrey Hinton, 2018. [2] "The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World," Pedro Domingos, 2015. [4] "Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies," Nick Bostrom, 2014.
- Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is forecasted by some leading technological figures, such as Sam Altman and Demis Hassabis, to be developed within the next decade, posing significant implications for the job market, education, and self-development as it could potentially automate most white-collar jobs.
- As AGI progresses and gains traction, there is a growing need for individuals to adapt and reconsider their careers, with Alice Blair leaving MIT for the Center for AI Safety and Adam Kaufman leaving Harvard University for Redwood Research, both organizations focusing on AI safety research and development.
