Sparking Optimism in '25: Mosaic and Nutrien's Fertilizer Forecast
Agricultural giants Mosaic and Nutrien express corporate confidence: a shared outlook on financial prosperity and potassium market optimism by 2025.
The first quarter revenue dip for the world's top fertilizer titans, Mosaic and Nutrien, wasn't enough to dampen their spirits for the year. Both companies reflect a positive outlook for the global fertilizer market, as depicted in their reports published on May 7.
Kicking Off '25
Mosaic's Q1 revenue stood at $2.6 billion, down 3.7% year-over-year. Potash sales dwindled 11.4% to $570 million. Despite the dip, the company boasted a net income of $238 million, a fivefold increase from the previous year, mainly due to share revaluation and exchange rate differences. Adjusted EBITDA dipped 8.9% to $544 million. Diluted and adjusted EPS for the quarter were $0.75 and $0.49, respectively.
On the other hand, Nutrien's sales volume plummeted 5.4% compared to the previous year, reaching $5.1 billion. Net income slumped 88% to $19 million, while adjusted EBITDA dropped 19% to $0.85 billion. Diluted and adjusted EPS were $0.02 and $0.11, respectively.
Despite these figures, both companies are upbeat about the year's start.
Mosaic's Q1 '25 results underscore the resilience of the fertilizer market's foundations. Our unmatched global reach allows us to capitalize on the burgeoning international demand, particularly in Brazil, promising a significant sales volume surge this year, said Bruce Bodine, Mosaic's President and CEO.
Meanwhile, Ken Seitz, Nutrien's CEO, confirmed that in Q1 '25, Nutrien secured high potash sales volumes, boosted ammonia operational metrics, and readied its retail network for the anticipated robust North American planting season this spring.*
Market Perspective
The global fertilizer market's underpinnings have strengthened due to escalating demand and limited supplies, creating a favorable atmosphere for '25. Top managers attribute the decline in EBITDA to logistical difficulties and weather-related delays, which negatively impacted prices, sales volumes, and margins in the U.S. and Australia. However, the companies maintain their projections for '25, including increased fertilizer production and sales.*
Notably, Brazil's market is eyed with anticipation in the second half of '25, driven by intensified agricultural product demand from the country.
The Big Picture
Nutrien predicts that global potash demand will remain high in '25, with limited supplies fueling price increases on key spot markets. Therefore, the company estimates potash fertilizer shipments for the entire year at 71-75 million tons. The upper limit reflects the possibility of strong global base consumption, while the lower limit reflects the potential for reduced global supply availability. Nutrien aims to maintain its historical share of 13.6-14.4 million tons of potash fertilizer sales.
On the other hand, Mosaic set its 2025 potash production targets higher, planning to produce between 9 million tonnes and 9.4 million tonnes, up from its previous projection of 8.7 million to 9.1 million tonnes. Mosaic's management believes that global potash demand remains stable, and reduced expectations for supplies from Russia, Belarus, China, and Chile further tighten the demand and supply gap. Potash prices have surged by more than $50 per ton in most major regions, thanks to the absence of U.S. import tariffs on Canadian potash, promising strong demand in North America in '25.
The potash market in Southeast Asia is expected to recover by 33% year-on-year in '24. China's consumption continues to climb, with internal spot prices significantly higher than in '24. To address the increased demand, the Chinese government has auctioned off 1.1 million tons from its strategic reserves, driving potash stocks to multi-year lows.
- The positive outlook for the global fertilizer market, as shown in Mosaic and Nutrien's reports, is spurring optimism for the year 2025.
- Mosaic's Q1 earnings in 2025 dipped slightly but still demonstrated a net income of $238 million, a significant increase compared to the previous year.
- Despite Nutrien's Q1 sales volume decline, the company is preparing for a robust North American planting season this spring, based on increased potash sales volumes and improved operational metrics.
- The global fertilizer market's stability is being bolstered by rising demand and limited supplies, creating a favorable environment for business in the financial and agricultural sectors.
- Executives in the fertilizer industry attribute the decline in EBITDA to logistical challenges and weather-related delays that negatively impacted prices, sales volumes, and margins in certain regions.
- In the second half of 2025, Brazil's market is anticipated to experience a surge in sales volume due to intensified agricultural product demand from the country.
- Timely auctions of strategic reserves by the Chinese government are intended to address the increasing demand for potash fertilizers, as China's consumption continues to rise significantly.
- Mosaic aims to boost its potash production in 2025, predicting a range of 9 million tonnes to 9.4 million tonnes, driven by high global demand and reduced expectations for supplies from key countries like Russia, Belarus, China, and Chile.
